Statistics
on Islam: Some True, Some False, Some Way False
Michael Jaffarian
Coordinator of Research for CBInternational, Richmond,
Virginia, USA
Published in Global Missiology,
Contemporary Practice, January 2005, www.globalmissiology.net
A missions pastor who attended a seminar I
presented in Los Gatos, California e-mailed me a PDF of part of a brochure. It included some statistics that he asked me
about, which I compared to facts
from the World Christian Encyclopedia, 2nd edition. My reply:
Evidently the brochure is from Persian Ministries
International. From their website, they look like a wonderful mission organization, with a good witness for Christ
among Muslims.
As
for the "facts" presented in their pamphlet:
"1.
Islam has become the fastest growing religion in the world."
TRUE, SORT OF. Among the 10 largest religions in
the world, Islam is the fastest-growing. Among the top 20, Baha'i is growing faster than Islam. Then again, there
are religious movements within major
religions that are larger than Baha'i and growing faster than Islam. For example: part of Hinduism, the category of
Neo-Hindu religion (Sai Baba worship is one example), with 17 million adherents (Baha'i has 7 million), is growing
faster than both Islam and Baha'i.
The fastest-growing major religious movement in the world is Independent
Christianity, if by 'major' one means
'with more than 18 million adherents'. Independent Christianity, with about 386 million adherents, is an ecclesiastical
megabloc smaller than Roman Catholicism but larger than Protestantism, Orthodoxy,
or Anglicanism.
Note also that the global growth of Islam is
driven mainly by natural increase (births over deaths). Most predominantly-Muslim countries have high birth rates. Most
predominantly-Christian countries have
low birth rates. Only about 4% of the global growth of Islam is driven by conversion increase; for Christianity the figure
is 10%. Far more non-Christians convert to Christianity each year than non-Muslims convert to Islam; probably more
than 3 times as many.
112.
Islam
is currently growing by 50 million people annually.”
FALSE. Globally, the net growth of Islam is about
23 million people per year, with about 22 million coming by natural
increase (births over deaths) and about 1 million by conversion growth (conversions over defections).
113.
One out of
every 5 people in the world is a Muslim.” TRUE.
114.
By the year 2015, Islam will be the second largest
religion in the United States.”
FALSE. Even by 2025, Islam will be only the 4th
largest, after Christianity (then 261 million), Nonreligion (40 million), and Judaism (6.1 million). Islam is projected
to have 5.9 million adherents in the
USA by 2025.
115.
New
Mosques have started in America at a faster rate than Christian Churches.”
MAYBE. Though
Islam is less than 2% the size of Christianity in the USA (235.7 million vs.
4.1 million), it is growing at almost twice
the rate. Almost all of Islam's growth in the USA, however, is driven by immigration; only some of it
is by conversion. Those statistics pertain to the overall population growth of the 2 religions in the USA; I have not
seen statistics specifically for the
founding of new churches and new mosques. I assume the rate of growth of worship
centers would somewhat parallel the
rate of growth of religions.
116.
Since
the 9/11 tragedy, more Americans have converted to Islam than at any other time
in history.”
NO WAY. Not even close. Where on earth did this one
come from? This is alarmist and ridiculous.
The only time in American history when there have been significant conversions
to Islam was in the late 1960s
through the 1970s, when the Nation of Islam and other Black Muslim groups saw significant growth from among American
Blacks.
Again, it seems to me that PMI is
a good, viable ministry in many ways. Though I know very little
about their work, from what I do know, I thank the Lord for them. Some other
statements from their pamphlet:
"Muslims are not the
oppressors, they are the oppressed; they are not the enemy, they are the
lost."
A
wonderful statement. If only more American Christians would see Muslims in this
light! I heartily commend PMI for coining and using this slogan.
Also:
"The
acts of terrorism have resulted, and will continue to result, in greater
receptivity to the gospel among
Muslims."
Yes, for some Muslims. For some, this is a day of
opportunity for gospel witness not to be missed. For many others, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have hardened
their hearts even more against the
USA and against the Christian faith that they, rightly or wrongly, associate
with the USA.
... later ...
The
above reply was copied to a leader of Persian Ministries International, and he
responded very graciously to me:
“Thank you so much for your expertise in making the
necessary corrections to the statistical information for our brochure. Apparently our sources, books from the
current market, were not up to date. Your help was very significant to us.”
I
asked for specifics, and he wrote:
“Thank you so
much for helping us to be accurate. I got my information from several sources including the following books:
Unveiling
Islam by Ergun & Amir Caner Inside Islam by Reza Safa
Deceiving A Nation by Douglas Layton”